2026: Volume 5, Issue 1
Past Issues
PDFGibbs Free Energy and Epidemic Models: A Framework for Control Strategies
Anderson A. Nogueira1,2,3*, Antonio S. S. Santos2 and Gabriel B. de Gracia4
1Santa Catarina State University, Department of Physics, Joinville, 89219-710, SC, Brazil
2Federal University of Alfenas, Institute of Exact Sciences, Alfenas, 37133-840, MG, Brazil
3Federal University of Itajubá, Institute of Physics and Chemistry, Itajubá, 37500-903, MG, Brazil
4Federal University of Triângulo Mineiro, Department of Physics, Uberaba, 38025-180, MG, Brazil
*Corresponding author: Anderson Antunes Nogueira, Santa Catarina State University, Department of Physics, Joinville, 89219-710, SC, Brazil, E-mail: [email protected]
Received Date: June 30, 2025
Published Date: March 11, 2026
Citation: Nogueira AA. (2026). Gibbs Free Energy and Epidemic Models: A Framework for Control Strategies. Catalysis Research.5(1):20.
Copyright: Nogueira AA, et al. © (2026).
ABSTRACT
This work introduces a novel thermodynamic framework for epidemic modeling by establishing a direct relationship between the effective reproductive number Rt and the Gibbs free energy, Δ G = -E ln(Rt). We explore how epidemic transitions can be interpreted as phase transitions, drawing a formal analogy with spontaneous and catalyzed chemical reactions. Building on the analytical structure of SIR and SEIR models, we estimate Rt for SARS-CoV-2 using confirmed case data from a regional health authority, applying both the serial interval distribution (log-normal) and an alternative linear regression approach based on doubling time. This thermodynamic perspective provides a deeper physical interpretation of epidemic dynamics and opens new avenues for predicting and controlling community transmission.
Keywords: Deterministic Compartmental Models, Dynamics of Social Systems, Collective Phenomena, Spontaneous and Catalytic Chemical Reactions, Data Analysis, Thermodynamics